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Argentina is heavily favored to secure a Round of 16 spot when they take on tournament surprise Cape Verde this Thursday, July 3, at 6 p.m. ET on FOX.
While Cape Verde has won over fans with a rock-solid defense, my Argentina vs. Cape Verde predictions favor the reigning world champions to break away. Backing Argentina -1.5 is my top World Cup pick for tonight’s knockout match.
Argentina vs Cape Verde predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Argentina -1.5 | <<-185>> |
| Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 | <<+133>> |
| Goal scorer pick: Lautaro Martinez | <<-127>> |
TOP PICK
Who will win Argentina vs Cape Verde: Argentina -1.5 (-185)
Argentina vs. Cape Verde has the surface-level feel of a true David vs. Goliath matchup, but the longer you stare at it, the harder it gets to talk yourself into the upset angle.
Cape Verde will believe they can frustrate Argentina, and their best path is obvious: sit in a compact 4-5-1, crowd the midfield, and force Argentina to build slowly through Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez before the ball ever reaches Lionel Messi.
The problem is that Argentina are built to win these exact matches. They don’t need chaos, tempo, or 25 shots to create separation. They pick their spots, keep defensive control, and eventually let their quality tilt the match.
That matters against a Cape Verde side that can defend well for stretches, but likely can’t survive 90 minutes without cracking. Argentina have covered the -1.5 line in eight of their last nine matches across all competitions and own eight clean sheets in their last 10.
This feels like another professional Argentina win.
Playable to -190.
COVERS INTEL: Cape Verde have been one of the hardest-working teams in the tournament. Through the group stage, they’ve covered 432,796 metres, the 14th-most among all 48 nations. Argentina, meanwhile, rank 45th at 318,655 metres.Argentina vs Cape Verde Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (+124)
Argentina have no reason to turn this match into a shootout. Cape Verde’s path to staying competitive is defending in numbers, slowing the tempo, and forcing Argentina to patiently work through Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez before the ball reaches Lionel Messi in dangerous areas.
That’s a style Argentina are comfortable facing. Rather than forcing the issue, the reigning champions typically control possession, limit transition opportunities, and wait for their quality to create the breakthrough.
Cape Verde have defended admirably throughout the tournament, giving up just two goals in three matches, but generating chances of their own is a much bigger concern. Another disciplined Argentina performance points toward a controlled 2-0 victory rather than an end-to-end affair, making the Under 2.5 worth a look at plus money.
Playable to +105.
Argentina vs Cape Verde goal scorer pick: Lautaro Martinez (-127)
Lautaro Martinez offers better value than the shorter-pricedLionel Messi while still leading the line for one of the tournament favorites.
Martinez got on the scoresheet in Argentina’s last match, and his intelligent movement inside the penalty area makes him a constant threat against a Cape Verde side that’s expected to spend long stretches defending deep. He has a knack for finding pockets of space between center backs, and with plenty of creative players in behind supplying service, he should see enough quality chances to make an impact.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Argentina vs Cape Verde projected lineup
Argentina (4-4-2): Martinez; Medina, Martinez, Romero, Molina; Alamada, Fernandez, Mac Allister, de Paul; Messi, Martinez
Cape Verde (4-1-4-1): Vozhina; Pina, Lopes, Borges, Joao Paulo; Lenini; Mendes, Duarte, Monteiro, Lopes Cabral; Livramento
Argentina vs Cape Verde injuries
Argentina: No injuries to report.
Cape Verde: No injuries to report.
Argentina vs Cape Verde weather
Expect a warm, humid evening with temperatures around 86°F (feels like 93°F) at kickoff. A few showers are possible, with an 80% chance of rain around 6 p.m.
Argentina vs Cape Verde odds
 Argentina |
 Cape Verde |
|
|---|---|---|
| -667 | Moneyline | +1600 |
| +580 | Draw | +580 |
| Over 2.5 (-152) | Total | Under 2.5 (+125) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Argentina vs Cape Verde
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Friday, July 3, 2026 |
| Time | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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