USA 2026 World Cup Odds: Turkey Draw Adds Risk to Group D Path

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The United States didn’t get the soft landing many expected.

With Turkey joining Group D, what once looked like a comfortable path now carries real volatility, and the World Cup betting market is adjusting.

This is no longer a group the U.S. can coast through, but there is enough value in them winning the group to take a shot. 

United States World Cup odds 2026

Market
To win the World Cup	<<+5000>>
To reach the World Cup Final	<<+2200>>
To win Group D	<<+100>>
To qualify from Group D	<<-500>>

Odds as of 3-31.

United States World Cup prediction 2026

Pick: To win Group D (+100 at Sports Interaction)

Let’s be clear…the U.S. should still advance. But the margin just tightened.

Turkey brings attacking firepower and unpredictability, the exact profile that can disrupt a group-stage favorite. In a short format, that matters more than overall squad strength.

The U.S. still has the edge against Paraguay and Australia, but finishing first is no longer something you can assume.

Now it’s about avoiding mistakes and managing the group — not dominating it.

United States World Cup schedule

• Friday, June 12 vs. Paraguay (Los Angeles Stadium)
• Friday, June 19 vs. Australia (Seattle Stadium)
• Thursday, June 25 vs. Turkey (Los Angeles Stadium)

USA vs. Paraguay odds — June 12, 2026

Market
USA ML	<<-102>>
Draw	<<+210>>
Paraguay ML	<<+230>>
Over 2.5	<<-108>>
Under 2.5	<<-128>>

Odds as of 3-31 via Sports Interaction.

More 2026 World Cup Betting insights

• Canada 2026 World Cup odds breakdown
• Early World Cup predictions
• World Cup playoff draw bracket
• World Cup 2026 odds

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.