US Presidential Election Betting Odds: Vance Sees His Lead Narrow

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U.S. Vice President and presumptive Republican presidential candidate JD Vance is the oddsmakers’ pick to become the 48th President, although he is falling quickly.

Vance has a 23.1% implied chance to replace his boss, Donald Trump, in the Oval Office, per bet365. California Governor and face of the Democratic party Gavin Newsom is only just behind with a 22.2% chance.

Trump has flirted with the idea of a third term, although that would require a constitutional change and overturning the 22nd Amendment. bet365 does not have odds available for Trump.

2028 US Election odds

Candidate	Odds to win 2028 US election at
JD Vance	<+333>
Gavin Newsom	<+350>
Marco Rubio	<+500>
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	<+1400>
Josh Shapiro	<+2500>
Kamala Harris	<+3300>
Jon Ossoff	<+3300>
Mark Kelly	<+3300>
Pete Buttigieg	<+3300>
Gretchen Whitmer	<+3300>
Ron DeSantis	<+3300>
JB Pritzker	<+3500>
Ivanka Trump	<+3500>
Donald Trump Jr.	<+4000>
Andrew Beshear	<+4000>

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 26, 2026. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Vance, once a dominant favorite, lost significant ground to Newsom and Marco Rubio over the last month. He dropped from +220 in the middle of February to his current line of +333, representing a loss of more than 10% probability.

Newsom climbed from +375 to +350, gaining 1.1% probability, during the same period. While he remains second in odds, he was not primarily responsible for Vance’s decline.

U.S. Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio experienced a significant jolt over the last month, surging from +1,000 to +500. That brought him up from a 9.1% chance to become the next president to his current 16.7%.

The top three are clearly separated from the rest of the candidates. U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+1,400) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (+2,500), both Democrats, round out the top five and are followed by a hoard of individuals (all +3,300 or longer) who are still looking to get heavily involved in the race.

There are three Trumps on bet365’s oddsboard, none of them being Donald. They include his daughter, Ivanka (+3,500), his first-born son, Donald Jr. (+4,000), and his second-born son, Eric (+6,600).

Celebrities, notable figures

Entertainment icon Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is tied with Donald Jr., Kentucky Gov. Andrew Beshear, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, and Texas Rep. James Talarico at +4,000. That gives him a 2.4% implied chance.

Former First Lady Michelle Obama is listed at +5,000; real estate mogul and businessman Grant Cardone is +6,600; Vivek Ramaswamy, the youngest candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election, is +8,000; and sports analyst Stephen A. Smith is +10,000.

“I’m giving strong consideration to being on that debate stage for 2027 and running for the Democratic nomination.”

– Stephen A. Smith

(h/t @costareports ) pic.twitter.com/eYhXOjSs91

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) February 13, 2026

2028 US Election Winning Party Odds

Winning Party	Odds to win 2028 US election at	Implied probability
Republican	<+137>	42%
Democrats	<-175>	64%
Independent	<+3300>	3%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 26, 2026.

There was a notable swing in odds relating to the party that will hold power in the White House in 2028. Democrats, -130 a month ago, shortened to -175, while Republicans lengthened from +110 to +137 despite two of the top three candidates coming from the Republican Party.

US presidential election winners

Only three U.S. Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

US presidential election trends

• Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
• The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
• A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
• James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

Betting on the election in the United States

U.S. states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. 

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

In Ontario, there are multiple legal options to place bets including:

BetMGM: The sportsbook best known for its flagship US brand has expanded in Europe and is among the market leaders in Canadian gambling

bet365: Maybe the biggest name in global sports betting, bet365 allows bets on not only the winning president but also the winner in most states

DraftKings: One of America’s leading sportsbooks also allows punters to try their luck on presidential betting in Ontario

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