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The National Championship Game will not tip off until 8:50 p.m. ET, so you still have plenty of time to make your UConn vs. Michigan predictions.
Here are my last-minute March Madness picks for Monday, April 6, where I see value in backing the Huskies.
Last-minute UConn vs Michigan predictions
UConn +7 (-110 at bet365)
This line has spent some of Monday at +6.5, a seemingly small move, especially when it eventually toggled back to +7. But every step toward the UConn Huskies comes across as doubt in Michigan Wolverines star Yaxel Lendeborg’s viability tonight.
If Lendeborg is limited with an injured knee, Michigan’s air of invulnerability will be dashed. As well as the Wolverines played without Lendeborg against Arizona on Saturday, UConn will have had a chance to adjust for that altered look.
Monitor this spread. Perhaps you will not wind up with the best number, but if you see it tick back to +6.5 or +6, bet quickly with the presumption that some word on Lendeborg’s status has leaked.
Under 146 (-110 at bet365)
A UConn bet fits hand-in-hand with a bet on the Under, as does a bet based on worry about Lendeborg’s effectiveness.
The Huskies rank in the Bottom 15% in the country in pace, per KenPom. Their best path to winning any game involves slowing it down, but that is even more true when facing the kind of talent gap just about everyone faces when playing the Wolverines.
Michigan has not played a game without Lendeborg this season. In 23 games against Top-50 opponents, he has played more than 80% of the minutes, with an offensive rating of 140.1.
That rating stands out, given it is better than his season-long number of 138.7, which was already No. 7 in the country. His usage rate also ticks up against the Wolverines’ best opponents, to 21.1% from 20.4% across the season.
If Lendeborg is hampered, this is the exact kind of opponent where that hole will show, and that offensive slowdown would doom this total.
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 13.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Based on what we saw from Lendeborg in the second half of the Final Four rout against Arizona, his best path to clearing this points prop may be from beyond the arc. In nearly nine minutes of action after injuring his knee, Lendeborg took only two shots, both from downtown.
UConn limits good looks from deep, removing what may be the one arrow left in Lendeborg’s quiver. Michigan may simply need to resort to fewer Lendeborg minutes to get a more dangerous driver onto the court.
Both teams to score 30 points 1H: No (-110 at bet365)
To anyone who says an Under is boring, you are simply not creative enough to see the beauty in patience and earned futility, and the joy of persistent hard work.
Want to live and die with every bucket in the first half? Bet on at least one of the teams to fall short of 30 points at halftime.
Every time UConn waits until the shot clock is in single digits to initiate its offense, you will think positive things about Dan Hurley. Every missed layup will remind you that the joy in college sports comes from chaos and unpredictability.
A first-half spread favoring Michigan by four with a total of 68.5 suggests the halftime score should be about 36-32 in the Wolverines’ favor. All this bet is really hoping for is the Huskies to grind things down by a couple possessions, and/or the national championship environment sparks enough nerves that a few early shots become bricks.
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