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The No. 11 seeded Texas Longhorns look to continue their Cinderella run as they face the No. 2 seed Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.
The Longhorns were able to score against Gonzaga’s stingy defense and my Texas vs. Purdue predictions expects their offense to shine again.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region showdown on March 26.
Texas vs Purdue prediction
Texas vs Purdue best bet: Texas Team Total Over 70.5 (-115)
Since January 1, the Boilermakers rank 334th in two-point defense (56.7%) and 276th in three-point defense (36.1%).
On Sunday, Miami torched them for 40 points in the first half but stopped cutting to the rim and moving without the ball after the break. That was likely due to fatigue since Miami was running a six-man rotation and had played 36 hours earlier.
That won’t be the case against Texas who enjoyed four days off after upsetting Gonzaga. The Longhorns are 15th in the country in adjusted offense and excel at scoring inside the arc where Purdue is vulnerable.
COVERS INTEL: Texas is 29th in the country in attacking the rim efficiency per ShotQualityBets while Purdue ranks 294th in rim defense.Texas vs Purdue same-game parlay
I also expect Purdue’s elite offense to have success, which is why I’m betting the Over 148.5 in this SGP. After all, the Boilermakers rank first in the country in adjusted offense while the Longhorns are 81st in adjusted defense.
Texas’ poor three-point defense will be torched by Purdue guard Fletcher Loyer who shoots 43.3% from deep and has knocked down more than 2.5 threes in five straight games.
Dailyn Swain (17.4 ppg, 54.5 FG%) has been held in check so far in the NCAA Tourney but had scored 18+ points in 11 of his final 14 SEC games. He’ll rediscover that form in a favorable matchup against Purdue, who lack a long, athletic wing defender that’s capable of containing him.
Texas vs Purdue SGP
- Over 148.5
- Fletcher Loyer Over 2.5 threes
- Dailyn Swain Over 16.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Swain Song
Swain isn’t just a highly-efficient scorer, he’s also the Longhorns best passer dropping 6+ dimes in four of his last six games.
If Swain has a big game and the Longhorns put up points, there’s a chance their Cinderella run continues. There’s a lot of volatility when it comes to perimeter shooting at neutral sites and if Purdue’s outside shots aren’t dropping, this game becomes a coin flip.
Texas vs Purdue SGP
- Dailyn Swain Over 16.5 points
- Dailyn Swain Over 4.5 assists
- Texas Team Total Over 70.5
- Texas ML
Texas vs Purdue odds
- Spread: Texas +6.5 | Purdue -6.5
- Moneyline: Texas +265 | Purdue -320
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Texas vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Longhorns have gone Over their team total in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Purdue.
How to watch Texas vs Purdue
| Location | SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose, CA |
| Date | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Texas vs Purdue key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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