NFL signals a shift in prediction markets, urging operators to refrain from offering contracts susceptible to insider information and easily influenced events.
The NFL has asked prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket to avoid offering contracts on events that can be easily manipulated or known in advance, as the league moves to define boundaries around the rapidly expanding sector, according to ESPN reporting.
In letters sent Sunday, the league outlined concerns around events such as what announcers would say during broadcasts, which celebrities attend games, and the upcoming draft.
NFL Flags “Easily Manipulated” and Insider-Driven Markets
According to ESPN’s David Purdum, the NFL objected to four categories of prediction market offerings:
- Events that can be influenced by a single individual (e.g., missed field goals)
- Outcomes that may be known in advance (e.g., draft picks, player signings, coaching changes)
- Markets tied to officiating decisions
- “Inherently objectionable” topics, including player injuries and fan safety
Most of the NFL’s requests are similar to what it asks from traditional sportsbooks. The league also raised concerns about markets that sportsbooks do not typically offer, such as broadcasters’ commentary and celebrity attendance.
“Some people are going to have that information … that they can then share,” NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller told ESPN.
We’re trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space.”
The NFL said its goal is to protect players, coaches, and officials from “unfair and unwanted allegations” tied to gambling and prediction market activity.
Super Bowl Activity Underscores Scale — and Risk
The concerns come amid a surge in sports-related prediction market activity. For the Super Bowl, Kalshi reported close to $900 million in trading volume across related markets, including contracts tied to broadcaster mentions and celebrity appearances — categories the NFL is now explicitly seeking to limit.
The celebrity attendee market generated $36.8 million in volume, while advertiser-related markets saw over $40 million in trading volume. Later, questions about insider trading surfaced related to the celebrity-attendees market.
Letter Details Highlight Breadth of Targeted Markets
Purdum shared examples of the types of contracts flagged by the NFL on X. According to the post, the league raised objections to markets tied to:
- Officiating decisions, including timing, number, or type of penalties, replay outcomes, and referee assignments
- Game sequencing events, such as the first play of a game
- Personnel and transactional decisions, including roster choices, trades, hirings and firings, and draft selections
- Coaching decisions and in-game strategic choices
The examples also included highly specific, single-play or micro-event contracts, such as:
- “Will a kicker miss a field goal?”
- “Will a quarterback’s first pass be incomplete?”
- “Will a receiver’s first target be complete?”
- “Will a running back rush for fewer than X yards on their first attempt?”
Beyond gameplay, the NFL flagged markets tied to:
- Broadcast content, including announcer mentions
- Celebrity or fan attendance
- Sensitive topics such as player injuries, fan safety, and player misconduct
NFL Stance Evolves as Markets Expand
The league’s letter reflects a shift in sentiment towards prediction markets, from cautious observation to active boundary-setting around prediction market activity.
In written testimony to Congress in December, Miller warned that certain sports-related contracts were operating outside established regulatory frameworks.
We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized,” he wrote. “These contracts fall outside the purview of state regulatory authorities and the safeguards they impose upon the industry.”
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell also struck a cautious tone at the time, saying, “That’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out …”
However, around the Super Bowl, Miller acknowledged that the sector has piqued the league’s interest due to enhanced fan engagement, a key reason the NFL has embraced sports betting.
There’s no question that we’re going to be spending a lot of time talking about this in the coming months, and maybe even years,” Miller said ahead of the Super Bowl.
He added:
It isn’t just about anticipating the worst. It is a fan engagement tool, there’s no question around that, and that’s been good for the league.”
CFTC Engagement and League Influence Expanding
The letters follow months of discussions between the NFL and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator overseeing prediction markets.
The MLB recently announced a formal agreement with the regulator to share information and meet regularly to prevent manipulation. The NFL currently does not have such an agreement with the CFTC. Still, CFTC Chair Michael Selig suggested the regulator is inclined to weigh league input heavily when evaluating contracts:
If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation and an exchange is still trying to certify that, of course, we’ll evaluate the risks there,” Selig told ESPN.
“But the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls, and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the leagues on these types of issues.”
League Approaches Diverge Across Sports
The NFL’s cautious stance contrasts with some other major leagues, which have embraced prediction markets.
Besides the MLB, the NHL became the first league to enter into formal partnerships with prediction markets in October, announcing separate deals with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Smaller leagues such as the MLS and UFC have also partnered with prediction markets, signaling that more leagues see these partnerships as too valuable to pass up.
By contrast, the NFL said it would require stronger guardrails before considering any formal relationship.
We want to make sure that whatever is being done in this space, we can do our best to protect the integrity of the sport,” Miller said.
Legal and Legislative Pressure Mounts
The NFL’s letters come amid growing scrutiny and pressure on prediction markets from both regulators and lawmakers.
Operators such as Kalshi are involved in litigation with at least a dozen states, where regulators argue that certain contracts constitute illegal gambling. Additionally, lawmakers at the state and federal levels have introduced bills to prohibit certain contracts, such as those that mimic traditional sports betting, politics, and war.
Against that backdrop, league input, especially from the NFL, could play a decisive role in how regulators define and potentially restrict prediction market contracts.
The post NFL Urges Prediction Markets to Avoid Manipulable Contracts, Cites Integrity Risks appeared first on Gambling Insider.
