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Chase DeLauter is on pace for 162 home runs! Sal Stewart is batting a very sustainable .700! Surely, they are locks to take home the American League and National League Rookie of the Year honors this fall.
Slow your roll. As impressive as they are, there’s a chance that we’re jumping the gun here.
Below, I identify how the MLB Rookie of the Year odds markets have overreacted to these performances — and make some MLB Rookie of the Year predictions for guys offering real value in the respective ROY markets.
Rookie of the Year overreactions and early picks for 2026
| Overreaction | Early pick |
|---|---|
 Chase DeLauter<<+350>> |
 Samuel Basallo<<+2000>> |
 Sal Stewart<<+450>> |
 Owen Caissie<<+1300>> |
Early American League Rookie of the Year pick + overreaction
AL Rookie of the Year overreaction: Crown Chase DeLauter already!
Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter hit two home runs on Opening Day against the Mariners and finished the four-game set by going 6-for-17 with four long balls.
A 2-HR game for Chase DeLauter!
His first two homers in the Majors 😱 pic.twitter.com/Cgx9ETs5jL
— MLB (@MLB) March 27, 2026
It was a historic debut for the 24-year-old, who became just the third player in MLB history to homer in each of his first three games (funnily enough, fellow AL ROY contender Munetaka Murakami became the fourth shortly after).
DeLauter is not without pedigree, either, as the 24-year-old entered the season as Cleveland’s No. 2 prospect and was ranked 44th overall by MLB Pipeline. Chances are, he’d have been even higher were it not for a history of injury concerns throughout his minor-league career.
In February, DeLauter was +2000 to win AL ROY. That number shrank to +1200 ahead of Opening Day. He’s on a real upward trajectory, so hopefully you got in on the ground floor.
DeLauter odds to win ROY: +350 at FanDuel
AL Rookie of the Year pick: Don’t forget about Samuel Basallo
As part of the “what have you done for me lately” crowd, Baltimore Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo seems like a forgotten man after baseball’s first weekend. It’s easy to see why, as he has just two hits (both singles) in 10 at-bats, but this is the perfect time to pump the brakes.
Basallo has prodigious power, as evidenced by the 23 home runs he hit in 76 games at Triple-A in 2025. The Orioles have also shown that they are not going to mess around with his playing time. Even when Adley Rutschman has been behind the plate, Basallo has served as designated hitter and first baseman.
The 21-year-old slugger was +1100 on Opening Day, so this movement is offering a ton of value.
Basallo odds to win ROY: +2000 at FanDuel
Current AL Rookie of the Year odds & favorites
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
 Kevin McGonigle |
<<+300>> |
| Chase DeLauter |
<<+350>> |
 Munetaka Murakami |
<<+650>> |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
<<+700>> |
 Carter Jensen |
<<+1600>> |
Early National League Rookie of the Year pick + overreaction
NL Rookie of the Year overreaction: Sal Stewart is a hitter’s name
Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart has seen his odds halved from +900 entering Opening Day to +450 after just three games.
Stewart went 7-for-10 with a home run, three doubles, and three walks while not striking out once while terrorizing Red Sox pitching over the weekend. Obviously, he won’t hit .700 all season, but he showed why his bat has been so highly touted. And while he will certainly strike out eventually, he might not exhibit a ton of swing and miss, either, as he hovered around a 15% strikeout rate throughout his minor-league career.
Add in the fact that he plays his home games at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, and Stewart will become a Cincinnati folk hero by July, with an NL Rookie of the Year award soon following based on this pace.
Stewart odds to win ROY: +450 at FanDuel
NL Rookie of the Year pick: Owen Caissie isn’t a platoon bat
I wanted sportsbooks to overreact to Konnor Griffin starting the season in Triple-A while his peers lit up the MLB scoreboard, but so far, that hasn’t materialized, as he’s still a robust +700.
While I’m tempted to go with a pitcher that has yet to debut in either Bubba Chandler or Andrew Painter (both of whom I highlighted in our MLB Rookie of the Year odds), I want to single out Miami Marlins outfielder Owen Caissie, whose odds have only slightly shortened from +1800 to +1300 after an impressive weekend.
Caissie wasn’t initially in Miami’s Opening Day lineup against the Rockies because left-hander Kyle Freeland was on the mound, but was a late add due to a Christopher Morel scratch. He hit a double off Freeland.
The lefty slugger followed that up by going 3-for-4 on Saturday, before being relegated to bench duties on Sunday (again with a lefty on the mound), but entered as a pinch-hitter, ultimately walking off the Rockies with a mammoth home run.
OWEN CAISSIE WALK-OFF TWO-RUN HOMER 🤯 pic.twitter.com/bz3QkvlvqI
— MLB (@MLB) March 29, 2026
Caissie got his first taste of the majors last summer, and it didn’t go so well, but it looks like the jitters are all the way gone, and this line won’t last much longer either.
Caissie odds to win ROY: +1300 at FanDuel
Current NL Rookie of the Year odds & favorites
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
 JJ Wetherholt |
<<+450>> |
| Sal Stewart |
<<+450>> |
 Nolan McLean |
<<+550>> |
 Konnor Griffin |
<<+700>> |
| Owen Caissie |
<<+1300>> |
More MLB odds and picks from Covers
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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