Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.
The HR article connected on a Kazuma Okamoto +520 homer in the ninth inning last night in Toronto, and we’re right back at it with two early looks this morning and another to come this afternoon. The MLB player props are still offering plenty of value.
I’m targeting a pair of +475 middle-of-the-order bats in strong matchups at +EV prices: Jake Burger and Brent Rooker. Not an easy day for pitchers dealing with these two.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, March 31.
Best MLB home run props today
Jake Burger 
Brent Rooker Jake Burger (+475)
Conditions are ideal for power, with 17-mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures around 80 degrees — a strong setup for home runs.
Jake Burger gets a premium matchup against Zach Eflin, who is coming off back surgery and posted the second-worst HR/9 among starters with 60+ innings last season. Burger, hitting out of the cleanup spot, is 3-for-7 with a home run against Eflin in his career.
THE BAT projects a fair price around +375, making current numbers appealing.
There are multiple ways to attack this game, especially with the Texas Rangers yet to name a starter. Samuel Basallo at +550 or better also projects as +EV for the Baltimore Orioles.
Betting on the earliest game of the slate is also an easy decision for my MLB picks.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, RSN
Brent Rooker (+475)
I don’t usually put a lot of weight into batter vs. pitcher data given the small samples, but it’s hard to ignore that Brent Rooker has taken José Suárez deep three times in just five at-bats — especially with Rooker sitting at +475.
Rooker had a strong spring and may be off to a slow start, but the power is real. He has legitimate 40-HR upside, which puts him in a rare tier of hitters.
Suárez is more of a bullpen arm being stretched into a starting role because of Spencer Strider’s injury, which adds risk. The environment isn’t elite, but 80-degree weather in Atlanta with a total of 9.0 is still solid.
Fair value on this HR prop is closer to +400, and Rooker projects similarly to names like Ronald Acuña Jr., Shea Langeliers, and Austin Riley — all of whom are priced shorter.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Braves Vision, Gray TV, NBCSCA
- HR picks: 1-2 SU, +3.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
