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The 2026 MLB season is barely underway, but two newcomers are already turning into daily home run machines — and the MLB player props market hasn’t caught up.
While bettors are still getting last week’s prices, these bats are getting premium matchups in hitter-friendly spots tonight. It’s a perfect storm for value, and their home run odds won’t stay this generous for long.
These are my best home run props for Monday, March 30.
Best MLB home run props today
Munetaka Murakami 
Kazuma OkamotoMunetaka Murakami (+480)
The Chicago White Sox might be headed for another dreadful season, but newcomer Munetaka Murakami is the sunshine on the Southside. The Japanese left-hander has gone deep in every game this year, and although there is some swing-and-miss potential, that works well for home run props as it’s all or nothing with the rookie, with all three hits leaving the yard.
He has also moved from the sixth spot in the lineup to the second, so five plate appearances are very possible if Chicago can turn things over. He’s going from an indoor setting to another controlled environment in Miami, and only four other pitchers in baseball last year gave up more home runs than Miami’s Chris Paddack.
Fair price on the projection for our MLB picks is +360.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, MIAM
Kazuma Okamoto (+520)
Targeting Colorado Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano is a clear angle here. He allowed the fourth-most home runs last season and ranked in the Bottom 6% of the league in strikeout rate and Barrel% — a bad combo for limiting damage. He doesn’t miss bats, and there’s a real downside in a hitter-friendly matchup.
He now faces the Toronto Blue Jays, who just hit three homers on Sunday and have already seen Sugano multiple times, dating back to his stint with the Orioles last year — a quiet edge in familiarity.
The best +EV look is Kazuma Okamoto HR (+520), with the market as short as +425. He hit out of the five-hole yesterday and already cashed a HR ticket in a tougher matchup.
No starter projects for more earned runs on the slate than Sugano. Early in the season, pricing on NPB-to-MLB bats can lag — and this is exactly the kind of spot bettors can exploit before markets fully adjust.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, Sportsnet
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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