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Two of the highest-rated teams in KenPom history face off in the Final Four, as the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats — also the only No. 1 seeds remaining — make up the second leg of tonight’s March Madness doubleheader.
In big collegiate games, backcourts tend to dictate play, and my Michigan vs. Arizona predictions expect the Wildcats to punch their ticket to the national title game for the first time since 2001.
Read on to find out why in my March Madness picks for Saturday, April 4.
Tip-off is set for 8:49 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with the game airing on TBS.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win.
Michigan vs Arizona prediction
Who will win Michigan vs Arizona?
Arizona: The odds reflect just how close this matchup is, and both the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines are elite in many of the same areas.
Ultimately, I’m backing the Wildcats, who might have a slightly lower ceiling than the Wolverines but have a higher floor, since they play with more consistency. They also have better guard play, and that’s crucial in games of this magnitude.
Michigan vs Arizona best bet: Arizona moneyline (+105)
Both teams have terrific bigs and love to attack inside. However, they also defend at an elite level on the interior, so that matchup looks like a wash.
This will come down to perimeter play, and the Wildcats are more comfortable in the midrange, and boast the superior backcourt with Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries.
They also do a better job taking care of the ball and controlling the offensive glass, while Michigan has looked shaky in those areas against top-tier opponents. Those extra chances will make a difference in a razor-close contest.
COVERS INTEL: Arizona is 30th in the country in extra scoring chances per game (+3.4), while the Wolverines rank 215th (-0.6).Michigan vs Arizona same-game parlay
This game will be played at a blistering tempo, and Arizona’s highly-efficient offense has cleared its team total in eight of its last 12 games.
Arizona has the ability to force Aday Mara into high pick-and-rolls, a strategy Purdue used to expose Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats can also score in transition, which is an area in which the Wolverines were rarely tested during conference play.
With Mara protecting the rim, Arizona will lean on Burries to carry the offense with his mid-range game and perimeter scoring. He’s dropped 18+ points in seven of the last 11 contests and has been Arizona’s go-to scorer in big games.
Michigan vs Arizona SGP
- Arizona moneyline
- Arizona team total Over 78.5
- Brayden Burries Over 16.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Arizona Assault
With both teams pushing the tempo, let’s shift Arizona’s team total Over to the full game Over. Let’s also bet the Over 6.5 boards for Tobe Awaka, who is second in the country in rebounding rate.
Awaka dominates the offensive glass, and the Wolverines rank 194th in the country in offensive rebounds allowed per game. The senior forward will be given plenty of minutes as Tommy Lloyd tries to match up against Michigan’s trio of bigs.
Michigan vs Arizona SGP
- Arizona moneyline
- Over 157.5
- Brayden Burries Over 16.5 points
- Tobe Awaka Over 6.5 rebounds
Michigan vs Arizona spread and Over/Under predictions
Michigan vs Arizona spread prediction
Since I’m backing the Wildcats on the moneyline due to their superior backcourt, it also makes sense to take them on the spread, which sits at +1.5.
Michigan vs Arizona Over/Under prediction
Michigan is 14th in the country in average possession length, while Arizona is 50th.
With both teams pushing the pace and boasting plenty of offensive firepower, I anticipate the Over 157.5 cashing.
Michigan vs Arizona odds
- Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-110) | Arizona +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan -125 | Arizona +105
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 (-110) | Under 157.5 (-110)
Check out our full March Madness odds for more.
Michigan vs Arizona betting trend to know
The Wildcats have gone 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS against ranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Arizona.
How to watch Michigan vs Arizona
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Saturday, April 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:49 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Michigan vs Arizona key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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