Masters Odds History: Using Past Odds to Predict the 2026 Masters Champion

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The Masters is a tradition unlike any other, so with the 2026 edition at Augusta National set for Round 1 on Thursday, it’s the perfect time to take a stroll down memory — or Magnolia — lane and dissect historical betting trends for the season’s opening major championship.

Bettors and golf enthusiasts can look to past Masters odds as a window of insight to make their Masters picks for bets and pools, and even assist in predicting the 2026 Masters champion.

Here are a number of trends from the odds at Sports Odds History that helped me find two of my first bets for the 2026 edition.

Opening odds of the past 20 Masters winners

The longshot era is long gone

From 2007 through 2012, five of the six winners had odds of +5000 or above, and four were +10000 or higher.

In the 13 years since, Danny Willett won at +15000 in 2016, and Hideki Matsuyama won at +4000 in 2021. The Masters champion had odds of +2000 or lower eight of 13 years, too.

As a result, I focused on players below +4000 and closer to the top of the board.

Chalk talks

The winner of the Masters has closed with odds at +1600 or lower before Round 1 in six of the past seven years, and Rory McIlroy (+675) and Scottie Scheffler (+500) have closed well below +1000 the past two.

It’s reminiscent of the 2001-2006 stretch of winners:

●    2006: Phil Mickelson (+800)
●    2005: Tiger Woods (+350)
●    2004: Phil Mickelson (+1200)
●    2003: Mike Weir (+3000)
●    2002: Tiger Woods (+200)
●    2001: Tiger Woods (+150)

The 2026 Masters odds list has multiple guys at the top who have minor question marks, so while I want to have one chalky player on my betting card, I also didn’t want to restrict myself to the players below +1600 odds because the betting favorites obviously don’t always win.

The second bet I made this week was Xander Schauffele to win at +1850.

Four special days in April

Returning to Hideki Matsuyama’s 2021 win (+4000), and including Mike Weir winning at +3000 in 2003, there have been seven Masters winners with odds in the +2500 to +6000 range over the past 23 years.

It serves as a reminder that it only takes four special days in April to win at Augusta National, so when you add the noted five longshots who won from 2007-2012, that’s 12 golfers at +2500 or higher who have donned the Green Jacket in a 23-year stretch.

So, while the recent dominance from players at the top of the odds board the past four years shouldn’t be ignored, neither should the wealth of talent in the middle tiers of the odds list. 

I’m not going to ignore this tier in the odds lists ahead of Round 1. My first bet of the week was Collin Morikawa to win at +3500.

Betting the field

A final and important nugget to keep in mind is that the Sports Odds History betting data dates back to an era where bettors could wager on “The Field” in addition to approximately half the golfers, so there weren’t odds available for every player. 

A result of this was that it was commonplace for far more players to be priced at +1000 or below, including “The Field” as a frequent betting favorite.

Golfers with odds of +1000 or shorter:

●    1990: 11
●    1989: 13
●    1988: 13
●    1987: 7
●    1986: 9

This era of the odds began to shift in 1991 with six or fewer golfers (including “The Field”) listed at +1000 or lower until 1995, and then in 1996 Greg Norman was the betting favorite at +900 and the lone player below +1000. 

The Tiger Woods era began in 1997, and aside from him frequently trading at historic low prices, the odds boards from 1997 on are far more reminiscent of what we’ve seen in the past number of years.

Finally, 2009 was the last year “The Field” was listed on Sports Odds History.

2026 Masters picks

Xander Schauffele to win (+1850 at DraftKings)

While Xander Schauffele slots in slightly down the odds board, his three consecutive Top 10s in the Masters and solid current form have him in the sweet spot of below +2000 odds, just like six of the past seven winners at Augusta National.

Of course, Schauffele has also carded a T3 and T2 in the Masters, and he’s carded a Top 25 while gaining true strokes across the board in each of his past five 2026 events.

Collin Morikawa to win (+3500 at FanDuel)

Collin Morikawa was my first 2026 Masters prediction to win because he’s sporting his longest odds to win ahead of Round 1, and he’s still in the sweet-spot range where several highlighted players have strung together four solid days in April to don the Green Jacket.

Of course, Morikawa is one of only two players in this field with a 2026 PGA Tour win and four consecutive Top 20 finishes at Augusta National.

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