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Masters championships are won in those gripping final shots of the tournament – but they can be lost as early as Thursday morning.
A whopping 11 of the previous 16 Masters champions sat inside the top 5 after Round 1, and can we really be all that surprised? You need to bank those Thursday birdies while you can, as things get considerably more daunting over the final 54 holes.
Here’s a look at my first-round leader Masters picks, where I steer clear of the chalkiest plays on the board in favor of three players who have fared well early in 2026 events and have the skills to thrive at the tamer Thursday edition of Augusta National.
Masters first-round leader picks
- Matt Fitzpatrick, 0.25 units (+2800 at BetMGM)
- Min Woo Lee, 0.25 units (+4000 at BetMGM)
- Russell Henley, 0.1 units (+5000 at BetMGM)
Picks were made on 4-8 at 7 a.m. ET.
Masters first-round leader predictions
FRL pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (0.25 units)
+2800 at BetMGM
Granted, Fitzpatrick will almost certainly need to better his all-time greatest Masters round (67) to cash this play. But he’s already one of Augusta’s most consistent recent performers with 10 made cuts in 11 starts, and is coming off an absolute March heater in which he placed second at THE PLAYERS Championship and won the Valspar Championship in back-to-back weeks.
Fitzpatrick ranks inside the top seven in SG: Total, GIR rate, and birdie average this season, with perhaps the strongest recent form of any player in the field. And he ranks ninth in Round 1 Scoring Average, so he’s no stranger to early birdie opportunities. I’m happy to take him where he’s priced, and strongly believe he’s the best “top-tier” FRL option on the board.
FRL pick: Min Woo Lee (0.25 units)
+4000 at BetMGM
Lee’s cumulative 5-over showing in four opening rounds at Augusta doesn’t instil me with much confidence, but his play in 2026 sure does. Lee enters the week ranked fifth in SG: Total on the strength of a terrific all-around game that extends from the driver (13th in distance) to the putter (28th in strokes gained).
Lee has parlayed his early-season success into the tour’s No. 2 ranking in birdie or better percentage, and that’s a form-reliant trend I’m happy to buy at this price. Take the sample with a grain of salt, but Lee’s 68.29 Round 1 scoring average (fifth-best in 2026) is clearly well-earned and makes him a terrific value play for FRL honors.
FRL pick: Russell Henley (0.1 units)
+5000 at BetMGM
We won’t talk about last year.
Disregard that opening-round 79 Henley spat out in 2025 and focus on the fact that the Georgia native has six top-40 finishes in his last seven visits to Augusta. And the Masters hasn’t been nearly as “bomber-friendly” in recent years, so Henley’s disadvantage off the tee (142nd in distance) is less of a factor.
Henley’s putting has been sublime (18th in SG), and he’s the sixth-most accurate driver on tour in 2026. Those will play well here. Add in his No. 13 ranking in Round 1 scoring average, and you could certainly do worse in this odds range. I’m more skittish about investing a quarter unit (so I’m not), but Henley has been consistent enough in the things that matter to warrant a lotto play.
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