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The New York Yankees and Miami Marlins get game two of a three-game set going tonight, with the situation looking very similar to yesterday.
Yesterday, the Bronx Bombers took advantage of a Marlins pitcher who struggles with giving up hard contact… and my Marlins vs. Yankees predictions today see things playing out similarly.
See why my MLB picks for Saturday, April 4, lean towards the Yankees winning (and runs being scored) in the Bronx.
Who will win Marlins vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (+115)
Many elements from yesterday’s matchup carry over today. Max Meyer’s average exit velocity last season was among the worst for qualified starters, which is a big problem when you’re headed to Yankee Stadium.
I think we will see the Yankees target this yet again, using the dimensional advantages of their home stadium to their benefit (looking towards those short porches down the lines), with Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger all starting the year strong — plus Aaron Judge showing signs of life with his first multi-hit game (and his third homer of the year) in the home opener yesterday.
After an 8-2 win in the series opener, the Yankees’ lineup has momentum and a clear matchup edge.
COVERS INTEL: Meyer’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity ranked in the bottom 5% all qualified MLB pitchers last year.Marlins vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+100)
I was perplexed when I projected this total at just 8.8 until I saw it — a brisk wind blowing in.
While that will certainly play a part, it’s still not enough to get me off this Over: The Yankees have already illustrated enough diversity at the plate to suggest they can score plenty of runs with hard-contact rather than relying on the home run.
On the other side, we’ve yet to mention Ryan Weathers on the mound for New York. He should be better than Meyer, but he’s still exploitable and struggled during Spring Training.
I don’t think the Marlins will need to do much to push this Over either, as I expect the Yankee bats to do some heavy lifting yet again.
- ML/RL bets: 1-1, +0.12 units
- Over/Under bets: 3-0, +3 units
Marlins vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Miami +156 | New York -163
- Run line: Miami +1.5| New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5| Under 7.5
Marlins vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 47 games (+18.25 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Yankees.
How to watch Marlins vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Saturday, April 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marlins TV, YES |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Max Meyer (0-0, 5.40 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (0-0, 2.08 ERA) |
Marlins vs Yankees latest injuries
Marlins vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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