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UConn Huskies doubters are running out of excuses.
Connecticut wasn’t tough enough to beat Michigan State. It wasn’t talented enough to upset Duke. And it wasn’t big enough to cut down Illinois. Yet Dan Hurley has his program playing in its third national title game in four years.
Connecticut faces a combination of toughness, talent, and size when it battles the Michigan Wolverines in Indianapolis tonight. The Huskies are underdogs for the third straight game after not catching points all season, getting +7 from the bookmakers.
If you’re tired of standing in front of UConn (18-1 SU and ATS in the NCAA the last four years), here are three reasons to back the Huskies with your March Madness picks and UConn vs. Michigan predictions to not only cover this spread once again but win the National Championship.
Offensive Plan
The UConn Huskies‘ motion offense is a blender of off-ball movement and hard head-hunting screens that constantly forces opponents to chase checks.
Dan Hurley’s scheme deviates from popular pick-and-roll-anchored offenses that try to generate isolation situations against bad matchups. It forces foes to spread out and constantly keep their heads on a swivel, digging into the shot clock and wearing down defenses over 40 minutes.
The Michigan Wolverines haven’t seen anything like this all season, with perhaps Nebraska’s motion as the closest comparison to this level of off-ball activity. The Wolverines barely won that meeting, pulling away for a 75-72 home win as 11.5-point favorites in January.
3-Point Defense
Part of the Wolverines’ dominance in the NCAA Tournament has been improved shooting from beyond the arc.
Michigan was a good outside team during the Big Ten regular season, firing at a 37.5% clip from distance. Through its five NCAA Tournament games, UM is 57-for-128 (44.5%) and has made at least 10 triples in each of those outings.
The Huskies won’t survive if the Wolverines are connecting from deep, but they have protected the perimeter well in their tournament outings and beyond, allowing their last 10 opponents to hit at just 32% from outside.
Connecticut has held all five NCAA foes to single-digit makes from downtown and a collective 30-for-94 from 3-point range (32%), including checking Illinois to just 6-for-26 shooting in the Final Four.
Cooling the Wolverines’ 3-point threats prevents UM from going on big runs and keeps UConn within striking distance.
Yaxel Lendeborg Injury
Michigan senior star Yaxel Lendeborg plans to play through a sprained knee and bruised ankle on Monday. He suffered the injuries in the first half of UM’s Final Four win over Arizona, and while he did return in the second half, he was visibly hobbled.
Head coach Dusty May compared his mobility to that of a 38-year-old at the YMCA, which hits too close to home for this aging baller.
Take it from someone who has pushed through countless ankle, knee, and back injuries in his glory days: players can often fight through injuries when they happen, but those ailments really start to set in the following 48 hours. It’s the reason my lower body sounds like I’m walking on bubble wrap when I get up off the couch.
The 6-foot-9 small forward is the most talented player on the floor when healthy and would normally be a bad matchup for UConn. However, if his explosiveness is limited, his inside-out game is dulled, and the Huskies will have a much easier time containing Yaxel.
Lendeborg is Michigan’s go-to guy on key possessions as well as the default when the shot clock ticks down, as he exploits most matchups and creates his own shot. He’s also great on the glass and a tremendous defender, two other areas that could be limited.
As mentioned, the UConn offense makes defenders run all over the place, and I believe Hurley will test Lendeborg’s mobility by going after him with screens and heavy motion for his check.
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