In Brazil, senior figures within the PT government are aligning with the President’s push to significantly restrict online gambling, signalling a potential shift away from the current framework of the Bets Law (PL 2626/2023).
Another week of politicking has witnessed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva once again target online gambling licences, framing the sector as a growing threat to Brazilian society and economic stability.
Speaking to broadcaster ICL, Lula delivered his strongest remarks yet, stating that he “would shut down bookmakers entirely if the decision were mine alone.”
Criticism of the Bets regime has become a central theme of Lula’s political messaging ahead of the 4 October election.
Yet the liabilities of the Bets regime offer a convenient deflection for Lula as the administration grapples with a broad range of economic challenges.
On the campaign front, Lula has yet to answer solutions for challenges ranging from public debt and inflation to cost-of-living concerns, US trade tensions and ongoing Central Bank rate negotiations.
Sticking by a good storyline, Lula has previously questioned both the scale and societal impact of gambling, warning that Brazil cannot sustain “unbridled” betting growth. He suggested that the sector must either face significantly tighter restrictions or be curtailed altogether.
He said: “It’s not possible to continue with this unbridled game in this country. I’ve been discussing this business for 15 days… if they cause the harm we think they cause, why not end the bets? Or else regulate so that there are not so many in Brazil, if they have any use.”
Yet in campaign mode, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has yet to present the PT’s formal manifesto for the 2026 election, with policy positioning so far anchored in familiar themes – continuing labour reforms, bolstering social programmes and addressing inequality.
The President’s tougher rhetoric on online gambling and its social harms raises a critical question: does the PT government have the political will to suspend the market and return the issue to Congress?
Such a move would carry significant fallout, effectively restarting a legislative process that took more than a decade to settle, while risking conflict with key stakeholders across tax revenues, media and football leagues tied to the Bets regime… Does the PT government want to take Bets back to ground-zero?
Bets public health reckoning
It’s more than likely that the government will pursue a targeted tightening strategy to influence legislation on advertising restrictions, consumer protections and the application of further tax controls, rather than dismantling the market outright.
President Lula’s wishes are echoed across the administration, with Brazil Health Secretary Alexandre Padilha who aims to frame gambling as a public health issue that requires a determination in 2026.
Padilha has drawn direct comparisons between gambling addiction and the former soft governance of tobacco in Brazil.
The Health secretary argues that 2026 should be viewed as a reckoning for the country’s health system and its exposure to social harms, such as betting. He is amongst the raft of ministers that will advocate for sweeping restrictions on gambling advertising and marketing.
“For me today, the problem of gambling is an addiction problem on the same scale as the cigarette problem,” Padilha said, pointing to Brazil’s success in cutting smoking rates through strict ad bans.
“It is necessary to take more restrictive actions on betting advertising, as was done with cigarettes.”
While firmly pro-restriction, Padilha has stopped short of backing prohibition, instead supporting a framework in which betting remains regulated but subject to tighter controls and greater public health accountability.
That logic is already feeding into Brasília’s legislative agenda, with an advertising ban bill (No. 3,563/2024) advancing through the Senate, alongside other proposals that target federal advertising rules across Brazilian media.
At the same time, Padilha is leading the PT government’s health agenda in scaling harm mitigation efforts. These include expanding telehealth support via the SUS system and ensuring the full deployment of the national self-exclusion scheme, which has already registered more than 300,000 users.
Fiscal reality over campaign rhetoric
Beyond public health, betting is increasingly tied to broader economic concerns. Policymakers are scrutinising its role in household debt – despite data showing credit and overdraft costs remain the primary drivers – while exploring restrictions on access for consumers entering debt renegotiation programmes.
Attention now turns to Dario Durigan, who assumed control of economic policy from Fernando Haddad as of 30 March.
The dilemma is clear. The Bets regime has quickly become a meaningful revenue stream, with Receita Federal projecting up to R$13bn in 2026 receipts if demand holds. Durigan himself is no outsider, having been involved in shaping the regime’s fiscal framework during Haddad’s tenure.
Yet since the market’s 2025 launch, he has remained notably quiet, fuelling uncertainty over how the Ministry of Finance will reconcile political pressure for restriction with growing fiscal dependence.
As the election cycle intensifies, betting policy is emerging as both a tool of social positioning and a lever in broader electoral strategy – particularly in appealing to key constituencies such as Brazil’s evangelical base.
Within the PT’s wider “BBB” taxation narrative targeting bets, banks and billionaires – the future of the Bets regime now sits at the intersection of regulation, fiscal policy and political calculation.
