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The Iowa Hawkeyes meeting the Nebraska Cornhuskers for the third time this season in the Sweet 16 is certainly one way to keep the old Big Ten West alive.
My Iowa vs. Nebraska predictions expect the Cornhuskers to advance in this rivalry’s 2026 rubber match.
Read on for my full March Madness picks on Thursday, March 26, and don’t miss tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TBS.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win.
Iowa vs Nebraska prediction
Who will win Iowa vs Nebraska?
Nebraska: Iowa’s dramatic upset in the second round should be remembered no matter how the Sweet Sixteen goes. And, frankly, that dramatic upset may be logic enough to expect the Hawkeyes to fall short now. Iowa’s box score was rather ugly while toppling Florida. It should have elicited correction, not celebration.
Iowa vs Nebraska best bet: Nebraska -1.5 (-110)
This spread is deflated by the Iowa Hawkeyes slowing games down so effectively in the NCAA Tournament, but the Nebraska Cornhuskers are used to that shift. Nebraska plays at a rather slow pace, in the first place, and it split the season series with Iowa in two plodding games.
Based on pure numbers, the Cornhuskers are two buckets better. KenPom rates them nearly four points better in net efficiency. Since Feb. 1, BartTorvik has argued for a similar gap.
Expect Nebraska to force a bounty of contested threes, and making those heaves will not be a winning strategy for Iowa.
COVERS INTEL: Iowa is not the only team playing slowly. Nebraska’s two NCAA Tournament games have featured 61 and 64 possessions, both cashing their Unders.Iowa vs Nebraska same-game parlay
There was some thought given to a counterintuitive approach of Rienk Mast’s Over on the points prop but Under on his 3-pointers prop. That would pay out at +1150.
But the reality is, Mast will hoist a handful of 3-pointers even though Iowa is particularly vulnerable inside the arc on defense. Mast has hit multiple 3-pointers in three of his last four games, part of an added offensive emphasis for the 6-foot-10 Dutchmen, reaching double digits in seven straight games.
Iowa vs Nebraska SGP
- Nebraska -1.5
- Rienk Mast Over 12.5 points
- Rienk Mast Over 1.5 3-pointers
Our Big Dance SGP: Stirtz’s last stand
To some extent, Nebraska may need to be okay with Bennett Stirtz putting up shots from deep. His offensive usage rate and shot profile both rank nationally. The ball is in his hands too often to expect anything but shot attempts.
And to some extent, that can work for the Cornhuskers. Iowa has no other volume shooters. The hero from the second round, Alvaro Folgueiras, has hit 34 threes in 35 games this season. In the Big Ten season, he shot 23.2% from deep.
The Hawkeyes’ heroics were a delight, but only one player can genuinely expect to replicate them, and Stirtz will try to.
Iowa vs Nebraska SGP
- Bennett Stirtz Over 18.5 points
- Bennett Stirtz Over 2.5 3-pointers
- Bennett Stirtz Under 4.5 assists
- Nebraska -1.5
Iowa vs Nebraska odds
- Spread: Iowa +1.5 (-110) | Nebraska -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa +110 | Nebraska -130
- Over/Under: Over 132.1 (-110) | Under 131.5 (-110)
Check out our full March Madness odds for more.
Iowa vs Nebraska betting trend to know
Iowa was fading a bit entering the NCAA Tournament, going 0-3 against the spread in its three games before March Madness. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Nebraska.
How to watch Iowa vs Nebraska
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Iowa vs Nebraska key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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