Gibraltar has licensed its first prediction markets operator, Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham told parliament on Tuesday.
“We expect this to be a substantial area of growth for Gibraltar,” the minister said of the prediction markets vertical.
“A new licence has been issued, not withstanding that the new Gambling Act had not yet been brought into force and the new licence had to be issued under the previous legislation.
“This represents record timing for the issuing of a regulatory licence in Gibraltar,” he added.
According to Gibraltar’s gambling licence register Predict Street Ltd was licensed as a betting intermediary on 26 March under the 2005 Gambling Act.
The Predictstreet.io website claims to be the official prediction market partner of the upcoming Fifa World Cup 2026. Its website shows a countdown to launch on 9 April.
It is powered by Abu Dhabi-based blockchain provider ADI Chain.
Shows Gibraltar’s ability to adapt
Speaking in parliament Feetham noted the move marked Gibraltar’s ability to quickly adapt, particularly after gambling tax hikes in the UK threatened the peninsular’s significant gaming sector, which primarily serves the UK market.
“Since the introduction of the recent UK gambling duty increases, I have taken a more direct responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering,” he added.
Increases in Remote Gaming Duty and Remote Betting Duty, the former of which has come into force today, are expected to hit Gibraltar hard, and could increase the tax rate for Gibraltar-based operators to between 80% and 100%.
Gibraltar employs around 3,500 people directly, according to figures cited in a recent UK parliamentary debate. The territory’s gambling sector also generates roughly one-third of its tax revenue.
Feetham said in a statement on 1 December: “This is an issue of vital importance to Gibraltar and one that may directly and indirectly affect our public revenues.”
Will prediction markets pick up in Europe?
Gibraltar is the first market to directly license a prediction markets operator in Europe, although Malta last week said it was also working on a regulatory framework to license the vertical locally.
On 26 March Malta’s Economy Minister Silvio Schembri said it was “actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid global momentum which presents significant opportunities for innovation”.
He explained any changes to legislation would need to be “supported by a clear, forward-looking legislative framework that enables it to develop responsibly and at scale”.
Further afield markets have taken a seemingly hard-line stance against prediction markets, which are facing scrutiny from state gambling regulators in the US.
Germany and the Netherlands have strict rules against novelty markets in sports betting. Prediction markets are largely treated as illegal gambling or unlicensed financial instruments across markets like the Netherlands and France. Both have blocked leading operator Polymarket from operating.
Ismail Vali, president of RegTech firm Gaming Compliance International (GCI), recently told iGB that traffic and engagement data suggests prediction markets still attract European users despite official bans.
