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The Final Four’s tight spreads are producing super tight wagering splits as bettors weigh their best options heading into the two men’s NCAA Tournament semifinals Saturday.
Key Takeaways
- Illinois and UConn are split on the spread at theScore Bet.
- Arizona is the most popular outright winner at BetMGM.
- The Wildcats are getting 65% of the moneyline tickets at FanDuel.
Illinois, a slight 1.5-point favorite over Connecticut in the first matchup, is getting 52% of the bets and 55% of the handle at BetMGM, while theScore Bet reported on Friday that the Illini have taken 53% of the money. However, the Huskies are getting 61% of the wagers at the online sportsbook.
Michigan, which moved from a +1.5 underdog on the spread to a -1.5 favorite at BetMGM, is getting an even narrower 51% of the bets and handle in an epic battle of No. 1 seeds with Arizona. The Wolverines are the most popular bet in both categories at BetMGM.
Despite getting 49% of the money, Arizona is the second most-bet team by handle this weekend, with Illinois just ahead of the Wildcats in most wagers. At theScore Bet, bettors are siding slightly with underdog Arizona, which is getting 50.2% of the bets and 55% of the handle.
“The money slightly favors Arizona, but it’s been mostly balanced, two-way traffic for this battle between the one seeds on Saturday night,” said Adam Landeka, vice president of theScore Bet Sportsbook.
| Final Four Spreads | BetMGM Splits | theScore Bet Splits |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois (-1.5) vs. UConn |
Illinois 52% bets Illinois 55% handle |
UConn 61% bets Illinois 53% handle |
| Michigan (-1.5) vs. Arizona |
Michigan 51% bets Michigan 51% handle |
Arizona 50% bets Arizona 55% handle |
Backing Zona moneyline
With such a low spread, Arizona backers are finding value in a +100 moneyline, as the Wildcats are the most-bet team straight up on Saturday at BetMGM. They’re getting the majority of the moneyline bets and handle at theScore Bet as well, with juicier Final Four odds of +105.
The Illini are dominating the moneyline handle at over 67% at theScore Bet, but the -130 favorite has taken just 36% of the tickets. BetMGM reported that UConn +110 is the play there, with the Huskies getting 72% of the moneyline bets and 51% of the handle.
A FanDuel spokesperson told Covers on Friday that 65% of the moneyline bets and 54% of the handle are on Arizona to come out with the win, while the Huskies are getting 70% of the moneyline bets and 59% of the handle in the early game.
Other Saturday markets
Bettors are expecting points in both semifinal games on Saturday.
Michigan-Arizona has the higher total of 157.5 points, and 64% of the bets and 55% of the money at BetMGM are on the over. It’s getting more tickets than the other game.
The early game’s 139.5 has attracted 71% of the over tickets at BetMGM, but the Illinois-UConn handle is nearly split evenly, with 49% on the under. At theScore Bet, 54% of the money has come in on the over, but nearly 71% of the bets are going the other way.
Arizona’s Brayden Burries leads all player prop tickets at BetMGM with his over 16.5 points (-118), while Illinois’ Keaton Wagler to make three-plus 3-pointers (+110) is second.
Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg to score 20+ points (+155), UConn’s Alex Karaban to go over 12.5 points (+100), and Arizona’s Koa Peat to go under 15.5 points (-115) are also popular prop plays at the online sportsbook.
Needing anybody but Huskies
Since Monday morning, theScore Bet has seen UConn, with the longest March Madness odds at +550, receive the most bets at 29.2%. Michigan, which is +165 to win the next two games, is second with 26.9% of the tickets. Illinois (+450) and Arizona (+165) are both getting around 22% of the wagers.
The Wolverines have taken the most money at 35.5%, with UConn second at 27.2%. Illinois has seen 23.4% of the handle since Monday, while Arizona has taken the least at 13.9%.
“Both Michigan and Arizona were expected to be here, and their futures were priced accordingly throughout the year, so our biggest liability from a futures perspective is UConn,” Landeka said. “As things stand, any of the other three teams lifting the trophy on Monday night would be a better outcome for us.”
Women’s Friday insights
In Friday’s women’s Final Four, UConn -7.5 is the most-bet spread by tickets at BetMGM when the Huskies take on South Carolina. UConn is getting 69% of the bets and 71% of the handle, but the Gamecocks are the most popular moneyline team at +260 by tickets.
Texas (-1.5) is the most-bet team by handle, while the UCLA side is last among money accepted. The Longhorns have seen a massive 91% of the handle and 64% of the tickets.
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