The Signal
Iran premium hasn't priced the downside scenario yet. Worth watching WTI $78 as the tell.
Crowd is overconfident at 71%. Political incentive doesn't support the timeline. The threat is the leverage.
Polymarket has US Forces Enter Iran by April 30 at Yes 53%. Hegseth is moving assets. Trump prefers ...
44% implied for a June cut is wrong. History says fade it — the Fed doesn't cut into ...
Legacy media's Iran coverage is a full cycle behind the tape. If you're reading it there first, you're ...
Iran premium hasn't priced the downside scenario yet. Crowd is pricing escalation but not resolution — oil snaps ...
Implied probability is 44% cut before June. History says that's 15 points too high at this stage of ...
Crowd is overconfident. Political incentive doesn't support the timeline. Watch the Senate vote next week — if it ...
No historical precedent for this level of US-EU divergence resolving cleanly in under 6 months. The crowd is ...
If you're reading it there first, you're already late. Prediction markets moved before the press conferences did — ...
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