44% implied for a June cut is wrong. History says fade it — the Fed doesn’t cut into inflation re-acceleration with a strong jobs market.
Books are wrong on the Fed
Implied probability sitting at 44% for a June cut. History says that is 15 points too high at this stage of the cycle.
The Fed does not cut into an inflation re-acceleration with a strong labour market. The crowd is pricing hope, not data. Fade it on Kalshi.
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