Books are wrong on the Fed

Implied probability is 44% cut before June. History says that’s 15 points too high at this stage of the cycle. Waller’s comments today were dovish theatre, not policy signal.

Betting The Signal
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2 weeks ago 0 10

Implied probability is 44% cut before June. History says that’s 15 points too high at this stage of the cycle. Waller’s comments today were dovish theatre, not policy signal.

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