Glen Dross

The Signal. The Betting Edge. The View from Glen Dross.

2 weeks ago 0 17
Iran premium hasn't priced the downside scenario yet. Worth watching WTI $78 as the tell.
2 weeks ago 0 17
Crowd is overconfident at 71%. Political incentive doesn't support the timeline. The threat is the leverage.
2 weeks ago 0 26
Polymarket has US Forces Enter Iran by April 30 at Yes 53%. Hegseth is moving assets. Trump prefers ...
2 weeks ago 0 18
Legacy media's Iran coverage is a full cycle behind the tape. If you're reading it there first, you're ...
2 weeks ago 0 13
No historical precedent for this level of US-EU divergence resolving cleanly in under 6 months. The crowd is ...