Glen Dross

The Signal. The Betting Edge. The View from Glen Dross.

2 weeks ago 0 17
Finance The Signal
Short crude, long volatility
Iran premium hasn't priced the downside scenario yet. Worth watching WTI $78 as the tell.
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2 weeks ago 0 17
Betting The Signal
Trump tariff pause — fade the 71%
Crowd is overconfident at 71%. Political incentive doesn't support the timeline. The threat is the leverage.
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2 weeks ago 0 26
Geopolitics The Signal
Cry Havoc! and let slip the dogs of war
Polymarket has US Forces Enter Iran by April 30 at Yes 53%. Hegseth is moving assets. Trump prefers ...
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2 weeks ago 0 18
Culture The Signal
Legacy media’s Iran coverage is a full cycle behind the tape
Legacy media's Iran coverage is a full cycle behind the tape. If you're reading it there first, you're ...
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2 weeks ago 0 13
Geopolitics The Signal
NATO cohesion market at 61% is mispriced
No historical precedent for this level of US-EU divergence resolving cleanly in under 6 months. The crowd is ...
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