Let’s start with what the numbers actually look like.
On March 1, diesel was averaging roughly $3.90 per gallon nationally. By March 9, a single week produced a 96-cent spike — the largest one-week increase in diesel prices since the federal government began tracking the series. By mid-month it crossed $5. As of this week it is sitting at $5.375 nationally, with California above $6 and lower-cost regions still tracking above $5. The cause is documented: U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran starting February 28 effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most international oil tanker traffic. Twenty percent of global oil supply normally moves through that strait. It is not moving now.
A Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas — one of the ten largest in the country, processing 435,000 barrels per day — caught fire recently. Wholesale diesel futures jumped 16 cents on the news. That is an additional supply shock layered on top of a geopolitical one that has no confirmed resolution timeline.
During his session at MATS, DAT analyst Dean Croke said it plainly: small carriers on the spot market are getting dumped on. For spot market carriers absorbing it all-in, that money comes directly out of margin. There is no surcharge clause. There is no automatic adjustment. There is the rate you agreed to and the pump price you are paying, and right now those two numbers have almost nothing to do with each other.
This article is the plan for the next 90 days.
Understand Exactly What This Is Costing You Per Load
Before any strategy can work, the cost has to be quantified. Not estimated — quantified.
At 6.5 miles per gallon, a truck burning $5.38 diesel is spending $0.828 per mile in fuel. Three months ago at $3.65, that same truck was burning $0.562 per mile. The difference is $0.266 per mile. On a 600-mile loaded run, that is $159.60 more in fuel than the rate you probably negotiated was built to cover. On a 1,000-mile run, it is $266.
Run those numbers on your own actual loads. Use your real MPG — not a national average — and the actual fuel prices you are seeing in your operating region. Your number may be higher or lower than the national average depending on where you operate. California carriers are paying $6-plus per gallon. Gulf Coast carriers have seen better pricing but still above $5. Regional variation is significant and your fuel cost analysis has to reflect where your truck actually fuels.
That per-load cost increase is your anchor number for every conversation, every negotiation, and every load decision you make for the next 90 days.
Where You Buy Fuel Matters — Today More Than Ever
The national average obscures a range of prices that can vary by 40 to 60 cents per gallon on any given day depending on location, fuel card program, and purchase timing. At $5.38 average, that spread represents a meaningful per-mile cost difference that compounds across your annual mileage.
Fuel card programs are the most accessible tool for reducing per-gallon cost at the pump. Programs through factoring companies, truck stop chains, and independent fuel networks typically offer per-gallon discounts ranging from a few cents to 20-plus cents depending on the program and your volume. At $0.10 per gallon savings across 100,000 annual miles at 6.5 MPG, that is roughly $1,538 per year in fuel savings — meaningful for any operation. At $0.20 per gallon, that is over $3,000. If you are not running a fuel card with a documented discount network right now, that is the first thing to fix this week.
Apps like GasBuddy, Trucker Path, and DAT’s fuel optimizer tools allow real-time comparison of diesel prices across truck stops on your route. The difference between filling up at the most expensive stop on a corridor and the cheapest can exceed $0.30 per gallon during high-volatility periods like this one. On a 150-gallon fill, that is $45 per fueling event — a number that adds up across the run.
Plan your fills. In a normal fuel environment, fueling at the most convenient stop is a minor inefficiency. At $5.38 per gallon, fueling 100 miles early because the next stop is $0.25 cheaper is a rational decision that should be made before departure, not on the fly. Build fuel stop planning into your pre-trip process the same way you build in routing and appointment windows.
The Contract vs. Spot Divide Has Never Been More Important
If there is one structural lesson from the current fuel spike, it is this: contract freight with a fuel surcharge clause is a fundamentally different business than spot market freight right now.
For carriers with contract freight, fuel surcharge schedules adjust automatically when diesel prices rise above trigger thresholds. Shippers absorb most of the cost increase through higher all-in rates. The carrier is not made completely whole — surcharge schedules often lag actual pump prices by a week or two, and they typically do not fully cover deadhead miles — but they are substantially protected compared to a spot carrier absorbing the entire increase.
For spot carriers, the all-in rate is the rate. There is no surcharge clause. The negotiation you did last week at $4.80 diesel is the same rate you are executing this week at $5.38. You are absorbing 58 cents per gallon in additional cost on a rate that was priced for a different fuel environment.
If you are predominantly a spot market carrier right now, the broker negotiation article published on this platform earlier this month covers the specific tactics for pushing fuel cost into your rate conversations. Use them. The data is on your side — every broker and shipper knows what happened to diesel prices and why. Naming the number, naming the cause, and making a specific counter tied to your cost math is not aggressive. It is businesslike. Do it on every single load until the rate reflects the actual fuel environment.
If you have any direct shipper relationships that could support a contract arrangement — even a short-term rate agreement for 60 to 90 days with a fuel adjustment clause — now is the time to have that conversation. A shipper who values your reliability and wants predictable capacity through a volatile period may be more open to a short-term rate lock with fuel protections than you expect. You will not know until you ask.
The Spot Load Decisions That Actually Matter Right Now
Not all spot freight is equal in a high-fuel environment. The difference between a profitable load and a money-losing load at $5.38 diesel often comes down to factors that are easy to overlook when you are working quickly.
Deadhead matters more than it did at $3.65. A load that requires 200 miles of empty running to reach the pickup burns roughly $165 in fuel before you start earning a penny. If the rate on that load does not cover your loaded fuel cost plus your empty miles fuel cost plus your other operating costs plus a margin, you are moving backward financially. Calculate total fuel cost — loaded plus deadhead — on every load before you book it, not after.
Short hauls at high rates can be better than long hauls at average rates in a high-fuel environment. A 250-mile load at $2.80 per mile burns less total fuel than a 700-mile load at $2.40 per mile. The per-mile rate is lower on the short haul, but the fuel cost as a percentage of total revenue is also lower. Run the math, not the feel.
Loads with empty return lanes are more expensive than they look. If you haul freight 600 miles and then have to deadhead 400 miles back to your home market, that 400 miles of empty running costs roughly $332 in fuel at current prices. A rate that looks profitable on the loaded segment may not be profitable when the return deadhead is factored in. This calculation has always mattered — it matters significantly more at $5.38 than it did at $3.65.
Heavy loads that drop your fuel economy deserve specific attention. A loaded flatbed at 80,000 pounds running 5.5 MPG is burning $0.978 per mile at current prices. The same truck empty at 8 MPG burns $0.673. Know your MPG at different load weights and factor it into your cost calculations accordingly.
Cash Flow Through the Fuel Spike
A spike this fast creates a cash flow problem that is distinct from the per-load profitability problem. Even if the rates eventually catch up to the fuel cost — which they will, in some form, over weeks and months — there is a window right now where the fuel cost has already hit your credit card or fuel card and the revenue from the loads you are running has not been collected yet.
If you are factoring, this is the moment the tool earns its cost. Same-day or next-day access to invoice cash means the gap between fuel expenditure and freight revenue is measured in days, not weeks. If you are waiting on standard broker payment terms while fuel bills accumulate, the cash flow math gets painful quickly.
If you have a fuel card that allows a float — meaning you can buy fuel now and pay the balance at the end of the week or month — understand exactly when that balance comes due and make sure the cash to cover it is actually in your account on that date. Fuel card debt at high balances in a high-price environment is not trivial.
Build a 30-day fuel cost projection right now. Take your average weekly miles, apply your actual MPG, multiply by $5.38, and look at what the next 30 days of fuel spending looks like. If that number is higher than you have comfortable cash coverage for, address it before you are in a crisis — not after.
What to Watch as a Signal That Prices Are Peaking or Climbing Further
Nobody knows when diesel prices will stabilize or retreat. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the primary variable and it has no confirmed resolution. Mediation talks involving Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have been reported, and President Trump has signaled openness to negotiation with Iran, but no agreement has been reached and Iran has denied direct dialogue with Washington.
The specific signals worth tracking over the next 90 days:
Tanker traffic through the Strait. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that some tankers were able to pass this week and attacks appeared to have stopped since March 19. Any meaningful resumption of normal tanker flow through the strait will put downward pressure on crude prices almost immediately. Conversely, any escalation — strikes on oil infrastructure, resumed tanker attacks, an extension of the conflict to new parties — will push prices higher.
EIA weekly inventory data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly petroleum inventory reports. Declining diesel inventory levels signal sustained upward price pressure. Any meaningful build in inventory signals that supply is responding and prices may have room to ease.
Refinery restart news from Port Arthur. The Valero facility that had the fire this week was processing 435,000 barrels per day. How quickly it returns to full operation will influence diesel supply on the Gulf Coast and through the pipeline networks that serve the Midwest and Southeast.
Any renegotiation or ceasefire developments in the Iran conflict. This is the biggest variable. A credible ceasefire that reopens Hormuz tanker traffic would drop crude prices rapidly. Markets have already shown they respond to even rumors of negotiation — when Trump signaled “very good and productive conversations” last week, oil prices fell before Iran denied any dialogue.
The 90-Day Mindset
The carriers who survive this fuel spike will not be the ones who got lucky with timing. They will be the ones who treated it as a business problem requiring a business response — a written fuel cost, a deliberate fueling strategy, a rate negotiation approach that puts real numbers on the table, a cash flow plan that accounts for the gap between expenditure and collection.
The carriers who do not survive it will be the ones who kept running loads at rates priced for $3.65 diesel without adjusting, without tracking, without saying the number out loud in a broker conversation.
At $5.38 per gallon, fuel is no longer a background line item. It is your largest day-to-day operating variable and it deserves the same attention you give to every other major decision in your business.
Ninety days from now, one of two things will be true: the situation in the Middle East will have moved toward resolution and prices will have begun retreating, or the disruption will have persisted and the spot market will have begun reflecting sustained higher costs more fully in rates. Either scenario is manageable if you are operating with a plan. Neither scenario is manageable if you are just driving and hoping.
Have the plan.
The post $5.38 Diesel, a War in the Middle East, and a Refinery Fire in Texas. Here Is Your Fuel Survival Plan for the Next 90 Days. appeared first on FreightWaves.
