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Opening Day is rapidly approaching, and it’s time to look closer at the AL and NL MVP odds.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani will open the season as the overall betting favorites in their respective leagues, but there are alternatives up and down the board.
Below, I analyze the AL and NL MVP MLB odds for the 2026 season and explain why Gunnar Henderson is an ideal option at his current price.
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
<<+215>> |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
<<+500>> |
 Cal Raleigh |
<<+1100>> |
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
<<+1300>> |
 Roman Anthony |
<<+1400>> |
 Nick Kurtz |
<<+1500>> |
 Gunnar Henderson |
<<+1500>> |
 Jose Ramirez |
<<+1600>> |
| Julio Rodriguez |
<<+1700>> |
 Junior Caminero |
<<+2000>> |
| Pete Alonso |
<<+2200>> |
 Yordan Alvarez |
<<+2500>> |
| Jeremy Pena |
<<+3000>> |
 Corey Seager |
<<+3500>> |
 Zach Neto |
<<+4000>> |
| Wyatt Langford |
<<+4000>> |
| Carlos Correa |
<<+4500>> |
| Alejandro Kirk |
<<+4500>> |
| Cody Bellinger |
<<+5000>> |
 Tarik Skubal |
<<+5000>> |
Odds from DraftKings, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our DraftKings promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.
Odds last updated on 3-24.
Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
| Player | |
|---|---|
 Shohei Ohtani |
<<-145>> |
 Juan Soto |
<<+900>> |
 Ronald Acuña Jr. |
<<+1000>> |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
<<+1900>> |
 Elly De La Cruz |
<<+2500>> |
 Bryce Harper |
<<+2500>> |
| Kyle Schwarber |
<<+2500>> |
 Paul Skenes |
<<+2800>> |
| Kyle Tucker |
<<+3000>> |
 Ketel Marte |
<<+3000>> |
 Alex Bregman |
<<+3500>> |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
<<+3500>> |
 Rafael Devers |
<<+4000>> |
| Manny Machado |
<<+4000>> |
 Jackson Chourio |
<<+4000>> |
Odds last updated on 3-24.
MLB MVP futures bets
Before Opening Day, I generally don’t like to focus on players who could be deemed “chalky” options, which is why I’m not even considering Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge in MVP markets.
So much can go wrong early, from injuries to slumps, that I’d rather avoid the market entirely than pay the premium. Ohtani is already -145, and for as automatic as he’s been, that’s just not a smart bet in March.
However, I am hitching my wagon to someone near the top of the AL board to challenge Judge:
| Bet | Odds | Bet date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson |
+1500 | March 24 | 0.5 |
| Wyatt Langford |
+4000 | February 25 | 0.25 |
| Jackson Merrill |
+5500 | February 25 | 0.25 |
Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson won AL Rookie of the Year in 2023, establishing himself as one of baseball’s brightest young stars. He then finished fourth in MVP voting in 2024 after hitting .281/.364/.893 with 37 home runs and 92 RBI.
Injuries slowed his start in 2025, and his stat line was disappointing relative to what had preceded it, but he still hit .274 with 17 homers in 154 games.
While his power was sapped by a shoulder impingement for much of the year, he leaned into his wheels, stealing 30 bases. Fully healthy, we could be looking at a 30-30 season as a baseline. I’m putting half a unit on him at +1500, which is only a touch shorter than the +1600 it was earlier in the month.
A hot start, and that number flies out the window.
Previous MVP picks thread
2/25: Langford + Merrill
Wyatt Langford is a legitimate five-tool talent, not unlike Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony. The difference is Anthony is +1700 entering his second season (first full year), while Langford is +4000 entering his third. I expect Langford to take strides in his strikeout rate, which was a high but not catastrophic 26.4% last season. He doesn’t have a history of high K%, and we shouldn’t expect it to be the norm now.
Langford also rips the shit out of the ball. He ranked in the 87th percentile in barrel rate, 82nd in average exit velocity, 81st in hard-hit rate, and 90th in walk rate. He has patience and makes good, hard contact with consistency. He also plays strong outfield defense and was in the 88th percentile in sprint speed. A 40-40 season isn’t the craziest outcome to consider.
On the National League side of things, San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill was just shy of winning Rookie of the Year in 2024, and expectations were sky-high. But injuries limited him to 115 games, and he stole only one base after swiping 16 as a rookie. He also saw his strikeout rate spike from 17% to 22.4%. As with Langford, we can anticipate positive regression based on past performance in the minors.
He was still an above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 3.0 FanGraphs WAR), but it was a step down. His expected slugging was still in the 86th percentile, and he lifts the ball at an elite level, rarely hitting grounders. If he can push his hard-hit rate and exit velocity back to where they generally sat in 2024, a much better outcome is in the cards.
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Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven)
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 | Mookie Betts |
| 2017 | Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 | Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 | Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 | Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
Popular MLB futures markets
- MLB World Series odds
- MLB Cy Young odds
- MLB Rookie of the Year odds
- MLB playoff odds
- MLB HR title odds
MLB MVP odds explained
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Goldschmidt ran away with the MVP award in 2022 his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number for a large part of the season.
- Paul Goldschmidt -6000
That means that a bettor in August had to wager $6,000 to win $100 by betting on Goldy to win MVP. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
- Shohei Ohtani +200
That means a bettor would have profited $200 for a $100 wager on Ohtani before the season started.
If American odds aren’t your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
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